DECISION-MAKING AT BIFURCATION POINTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, WAYS TO REDUCE UNCERTAINTY
Abstract
Considering uncertainty at bifurcation points is a key to ensuring the effective development of financial and economic systems and reducing the risks of making informed decisions, the article analyzes the views of foreign and Ukrainian scientists on this problem. It is noted that there are great studies of the irrationality of psychology in investments, chaos and instability in financial markets, bifurcations in investments, critical points and catastrophic bifurcations, black swans which are negative events with great uncertainty that can occur at bifurcation points in economic science. Taking into account the systemic complexity and interdependence of financial and economic systems, vulnerability to external factors, and some chaotic nature of changes in the financial and economic sphere, experts studied the impact of risks and uncertainty in decision-making at points of bifurcation, information asymmetry, chaos, archival volatility and irregularity in financial systems, carried out attempts to model the development of financial and economic systems. The article solves the urgent task of developing ways to reduce risks when making decisions at bifurcation points in the development of financial and economic systems. Types of bifurcations in the development of financial and economic systems are summarized and systematized, their characteristics are provided, and system classification is proposed. The causes of risk phenomena and uncertainty in decision-making at bifurcation points are identified, and it is proved that crisis situations are created as a result of their interaction and mutual reinforcement. The possible consequences of uncertainty in decision-making at the bifurcation points of development are analyzed. Practical recommendations are provided for reducing uncertainty at bifurcation points that require an integrated approach, including data analysis, modeling, portfolio diversification, stress testing, and active planning. The importance of taking into account the specific characteristics of financial and economic systems and global and regional economic conditions is emphasized.
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