ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF UKRAINE’S LOW-CARBON ENERGY TRANSFORMATION BASED ON A DIGITAL ECOSYSTEM FOR RESILIENCE

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to substantiate a digital ecosystem as the information-analytical subsystem of adaptive management of Ukraine’s low-carbon energy transformation. The methodology combines systems, structural-functional and institutional approaches with the dynamic-capabilities perspective, polycentric governance and the absorptive-adaptive-transformative logic of resilience; it also applies a conceptual synthesis of the scholarly literature and an analysis of current Ukrainian and European strategic and regulatory documents. The scientific contribution lies in functionally linking a management loop – monitoring and diagnosis, forecasting and scenario analysis, coordination and decision, implementation, evaluation and correction – with a five-layer digital architecture, and in distinguishing the operational, tactical and strategic horizons of adaptation, each of which relies on its own set of digital functions. The architecture comprises sensor-monitoring, analytical-forecasting, modelling-and-scenario, local-market and institutional-management layers, complemented by cross-cutting requirements for cybersecurity, interoperability, data quality, decision logging and redundancy. The study maps digital functions to the absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacities of the energy system: situational observability and automation support the ability to absorb shocks; scenario modelling together with storage, demand management and aggregation support reconfiguration; while the institutional-management layer closes the loop by feeding monitoring results back into plans, standards and investment priorities. It is shown that the effectiveness of the loop depends less on the capacity of individual platforms than on the settlement of three data-governance questions – ownership of data, exchange standards and responsibility for data quality – and that regional resilience thresholds should be derived from operator data, scenario modelling and stress tests rather than set normatively. Particular attention is paid to the local-market layer, which converts technical flexibility into economically motivated behaviour of prosumers, aggregators and energy communities. The digital ecosystem is not treated as equivalent to the entire adaptive management system but as its information-analytical subsystem. The results can support regional energy planning, the recovery of critical infrastructure and investment decisions in distributed generation, storage and grid digitalization.