MODELS OF ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF KEY FACTORS ON THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF THE REGIONS
Abstract
The existing approaches to solving the problem of quantitative assessment of the export potential of the region are analyzed. On the basis of the previously carried out quantitative assessment of the export component of the foreign economic potential of the regions of the western part of Ukraine, a possible approach to solving the problem of determining the key factors, the change in the values of which determines the dynamics of the integral indicator of the export potential, is proposed and implemented in retrospect and existing realities. The application of correlation-regression analysis capabilities, in particular the methods of building multifactorial models, made it possible to develop, quantify and analyze the dependence models of the export potential of the regions of the western part of Ukraine on key factors, taking into account a set of statistical quality criteria. The models developed make it possible to identify the key levers of influence on increasing the efficiency of the formation and use of export opportunities of the studied regions. The use of econometric methods of analysis made it possible to construct multivariate models with satisfactory statistical characteristics. It is also hypothesized that the effect of individual factors of the region's export potential on its value may have a lag effect. Determining the optimal duration of lags in changing economic conditions for the realization of export potential at the regional level made it possible to develop a set of dynamic econometric models for the analysis of export potential. The compatibility of the obtained model results with acceptable values of the statistical indicators of the quality of the models of instantaneous and lag effects was noted. It is shown that the addition of lag variables to the developed analysis models, although it indicated the positive effects of the model estimates of many indicators, made them somewhat less statistically significant. The results of building and analyzing the data of two classes of models made it possible to outline the spectrum of promising research directions for improving the effectiveness of regional and national economic policy tools. The proposed approach made it possible to identify the priority areas of intensification of efforts aimed at increasing the indicators of the export potential for each of the studied regions.
References
Habenko M. Export of high-tech goods in the context of innovation transfer for social-economic development: factor analysis. SocioEconomic Challenges, 2023. №7(2), р. 152–160. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21272/sec.7(2).152-160.2023
Malyarets L., Otenko V., Otenko I., & Fatyanov D. Monitoring the development of the export and import potential of the regions. Montenegrian journal of economics, 2022. № 18(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2022.18-2.4
Gudz P., Oliinyk, Ya., Shkurupska I., Ivanchenkov V., Petrenko O. and Vlasenko Yu. Formation of Foreign Economic Potential of the Region as a Factor of Competitive Development of the Territory. International Journal of Management, 2020. № 11 (5), p. 590-601. URL: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3630819
Пирог О.В., Зацепило А.І. Оцінка експортного потенціалу регіонів України. Економічний простір. 2009. № 24. с. 146–148
Pilko A.D., & Lesiv I.B. Modeling the process of assessing and analyzing regional export potential. The problems of economy, 2020. № 1(43), р. 325–331. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-325-331
Chorobchuk O., Pilko A. Quantitative assessment of the region's export potential, Věda a perspektivy, 2025. № 11(54).
Portet S. A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion. Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020. № 5, р. 111–128. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.010
Habenko, M. (2023). Export of high-tech goods in the context of innovation transfer for social-economic development: factor analysis. SocioEconomic Challenges, no. 7(2), pp. 152–160. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21272/sec.7(2).152-160.2023
Malyarets, L., Otenko, V., Otenko, I., & Fatyanov, D. (2022). Monitoring the development of the export and import potential of the regions. Montenegrian journal of economics. no. 18(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2022.18-2.4
Gudz, P. and Oliinyk, Ya. and Shkurupska, I. and Ivanchenkov, V. and Petrenko, O. and Vlasenko, Yu., Formation of Foreign Economic Potential of the Region as a Factor of Competitive Development of the Territory (2020). International Journal of Management, no. 11(5), pp. 590-601. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3630819
Pyroh O. V., Zatsepylo A. I. (2009) Otsinka eksportnoho potentsialu rehioniv Ukrayiny [Evaluation of the export potential of the regions of Ukraine] Ekon. prostir. no. 24. pp. 146–148. (in Ukrainian)
Pilko, A. D., & Lesiv, I. B. (2020). Modelyuvannya protsesu otsinyuvannya ta analizu eksportnoho potentsialu rehionu [Modeling the process of assessing and analyzing regional export potential]. The problems of economy, no. 1(43), pp. 325–331. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-325-331 (in Ukrainian)
Chorobchuk O., Pilko A. (2025). Quantitative assessment of the region's export potential, Věda a perspektivy, no. 11(54).
Portet, S. (2020). A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion. Infectious Disease Modelling, no. 5, pp. 111–128. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.010
