METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES OF FORMING UKRAINE'S TRADE STRATEGY IN THE CONDITIONS OF CHANGING TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DIGITIZATION

Abstract

The article substantiates methodological approaches to forming Ukraine's foreign trade strategy in the context of global transformations and the transition to a new technological paradigm. The relevance of the study is driven by the need to adapt the national economy to the conditions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which requires a revision of traditional international specialization models and a transition from raw material exports to integration into high-tech global value chains. The purpose of the work is to develop a comprehensive methodological toolkit for evaluating trade priorities through the lens of the "three unbundlings" of globalization, the theory of long waves, and the digital transformation of economic relations. Foreign trade strategy is considered an instrument for realizing the state's geo-economic interests, where the key factor of competitiveness is no longer the low cost of resources but the level of technological competencies and the possession of intangible assets. It is noted that the shift in technological paradigms creates a "window of opportunity" for developing countries, allowing them to achieve a technological leap by implementing innovations during the depression phases of world cycles. It is emphasized that the digitalization of trade offsets the importance of geographical distances but strengthens the role of network effects and the concentration of market power in the hands of global digital platforms. The author proposes a methodological framework for selecting priority areas for trade expansion. In the sphere of structural transformation, the expediency of transitioning to a "managed openness" model is substantiated, combining the stimulation of non-commodity exports with rational import substitution of investment goods. Regarding evaluation methodology, it is suggested to use the "smile curve" to identify the most profitable stages in value chains, such as R&D, design, and after-sales service, allowing the strategy to be built around high-tech tasks rather than simple commodity groups. In the sphere of digital integration, the necessity of implementing digital product traceability systems and synchronizing national standards with global digital trade regulatory indices is proven. A reform of customs and tariff policy is proposed, aimed at eliminating anti-export bias and stimulating the import of technologies necessary for industrial modernization. It is concluded that under conditions of systemic instability and military-political challenges, Ukraine's trade strategy must be based on the principles of economic self-sufficiency and proactive integration into macro-regional associations. This will strengthen economic sovereignty and ensure the sustainable development of human capital by involving Ukraine in the formation of new rules for the digital world order.