METHODOLOGY FOR STUDYING ECONOMIC PROCESSES IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISK

Abstract

This article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations for analyzing economic processes under conditions of uncertainty and risk. It is argued that the modern economic environment is characterized by high dynamism, instability, information asymmetry, structural breaks, and the intensifying impact of external shocks, which necessitates a reevaluation of traditional approaches to the scientific understanding of economic phenomena. It is demonstrated that the methodology for studying economic processes should be based on a combination of systemic, behavioral, institutional, and risk-oriented approaches. The essence of the categories “risk” and “uncertainty” has been clarified, and it has been determined that risk is amenable to partial assessment and modeling, whereas uncertainty reflects a broader spectrum of phenomena associated with insufficient information, the variability of future system states, and the impossibility of their complete formalization. It is determined that an effective methodological framework for research must be based on the principles of systematicity, comprehensiveness, dynamism, scenario-based analysis, probabilistic interpretation of results, and adaptability of research tools. It is noted that modern methodological tools should encompass general scientific methods, economic and statistical analysis, econometric modeling, the scenario approach, expert assessment, stress testing, sensitivity analysis, and digital analytical tools. The paper justifies the use of a combined methodology, which allows for accounting for the multifactorial nature of economic processes, identifying sources of instability, evaluating alternative development trajectories, and formulating scientifically grounded recommendations. Attention is focused on Ukrainian conditions, where economic processes unfold under the influence of martial law, regulatory volatility, logistical disruptions, external financial dependence, and accelerated digital transformation. It is concluded that the proposed methodological provisions form the scientific basis for improving the quality of economic research, the reliability of analytical conclusions, and the effectiveness of management decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.